I have been pondering the considered opinions of many contrarians calling the forecast the spells doom for the American economy. How is it going to happen? What do we look for? And I have come to the conclusion that it will mostly happen within our borders. The dollar will not collapse if there is a basket of currencies that will be the reserve funds for the world. Iran already trades oil for Euros. They won't take the dollar. And it hasn't hurt the USA very much at all. So, the Petro-Dollar is not the back breaker we might have thought it to be. The dollar is not going to be excluded from the market place any time soon. Believe it. All these Central Banks in Europe and around the world have tons of dollars in their vaults and they are not about to pitch them into a fire unless absolutely forced to do so. Ergo, I see a place for the dollar for quite a while. The dollar may be severely down graded but it will still be legal tender of some sort. What will kill this country will be the fact the we produce little or no manufacturing. China is the big dog on the manufacturing level these days. Europe comes next, I would say.
America will choke to death on it's own incapacity to produce. No jobs are forth coming. No tool orders like we used to have in the past when we geared up for a come back. The fedgov will be fighting a war of attrition. America will devour itself. There will be the gray visage of the out-of-work laborer who is in soup lines or FEMA camps. And many will join their ranks on a daily basis. America has lost 11,000 jobs per day since the recession was declared in December of 2007. Congress is having to extend, repeatedly, the unemployment benefits that so many require just to live. Jobs are scarce and a few openings will attract thousands of applicants. It happens every day. I watch videos of guys in big cities who are constantly looking for work. A lot of them are working part time these days because that is all their companies can offer them. But they can't find full time work so they are trapped in the downward cycle of lack of income and nowhere to go to better themselves. And these are working men with wives and families. They don't want to lose their homes and watch their kids go hungry and have to live on the street. And it is getting tough. Tough as hell. And they are eating up their resource. Every week they have a little less than the week before. Their kids get a little less than they did the week before. And this will trigger the death of this nation. This is the nut that will crack to open the soft underbelly of the American economy. The problem is we don't HAVE an economy. We are consumers, pure and simple. We borrow and buy. We live off the largess of the world. And it is going to take a helluva toll when it goes to hell and gone. We are eating all of our fat every day of the week and we are making no more. It's gonna get hungry outside. Very hungry.
Now that I have all of that off my chest I can get on with writing. We have so much to do and so little resource to do it with. But somehow we manage. It's kind of amazing when you think about it. We are making a way through the collapse a few cans a week! And it will bear witness of our thinking. We are not haters or terrorists or any of those idiotic names the system like to bestow on those who don't go along with their insane programs. We are lovers of our fellow men and wish to see them survive the hard times ahead. We can stay out of the anarchy and rioting of the future because we will be able to stay at home and ride it out. No trips to jail or to FEMA camps or any of that crap. Just folks out on the land at their retreats growing food and looking after each other. The way things are supposed to be. If a disturbance comes our way we will take care of it in the manner required,. and no more. We have become tired of the world's problems and wish them to go away. We didn't cause them and we can't stop them so leave us out of the mess. The fedgov would like to see us get involved in their shenanigans but we are too enlightened at this point to fall for their bullshit any more.
I got some good comments and emails about the bartering I had up on the blog. A lot of people seem to be very much in to this form of commerce. A surprising amount. And a lot of them are taking steps to acquire barter items on a regular basis. They pick up a few items at the stores every week or so. Useful items like batteries and ammo and beans and things like that. Razor blades and flashlights are in the mix as well. Bags of cigarette tobacco and rolling papers along with half pints of booze are popular items. Watch some trading and you might be able to turn your little barter thing into a real business. I think about mmpaints and her soap making. She makes it all the time. My mind goes to having my BIL make me a board mold to knock out 20 bars of soap at a time! Shouldn't be any task at all for my BIL. He could knock it out in an afternoon. My wife makes wine in gallon jugs. Sure might be popular with folks who like a little change of pace from straight water. These are some things you can make from scratch, should you be able to find a source of raw materials. And who the hell knows what you have available and what you can make out of it? THINK! It is your future and your future may be a little more comfortable if you can come up with something useful to your neighbors. You can get mmpaints recipes at her web site at http://selfsustainedliving.blogspot.com/ . She is big on soap and cheese. Truth be told, she is good at a lot of stuff.
I'm all wound up today about the coming collapse and bartering and growing food and telling the fedgov to stay the hell out of my life. It all falls in line so well! We get to be responsible again! What freedom. What a clear shot at life we will have. Let the morons die off or live in FEMA camps, sustained by fiat money. We can go on ahead into a life of honor and meaning. Our kids will know how it is done, not being allowed to be dumbed down and turned into robots and parasites. I have lived a life, many years ago, where we did not allow outside influences to rule us. We did not look to outer society to entertain us. We had a band with pots being turned into drums and a washtub converted into a bass fiddle. A guitar made the melody, with no amplification. Great parties! A wonderful time was had by all. We drank lots of beer and danced like we were possessed. Old folks and kids together. And we were free! Nobody messed with us. We logged and sawmilled all week and we had muscles in our shit. The guns were up in our rooms if they were needed. Visitors behaved themselves or they got told to leave. If they didn't leave they got their asses kicked. Ahh...the simple life. We'll get to that again one of these days and it will be great. Be ready for the good times. Stay alive!
Michael
mboone@rtccom.net
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Saturday, October 10, 2009
POLITICS AND THE DEATH OF AN INSTITUTION
It's Friday morning as I write this. It has rained all night here in southern Indiana and you can here the water rushing through the lake overflow. Kinda nice. We are supposed to get a bunch more rain today. I guess that is okay. The Handmaiden has new ristras hanging on the various beams and window trim and there will be a lot more. And I mean a LOT more. The foodstocks keep building here at the homestead. I think this Winter is going to be an ass kicker and the thought of being supplied with preps is a comforting thing. Gold is going up and so did the dollar last night. But it is all fake and controlled and don't mean a damn thing. I listened to a five part interview of Gerald Celente on the Jeff Rense show last night. YouTube had the whole thing. And you didn't even need to click on the next audio tape because YouTube will do it for you. Pretty slick. Celente's message has not changed much except to say that it is all over but the screams and it's time to get out the pop corn and watch the fireworks. I tried reading Bloomberg yesterday but the spin is so amazing I could not continue through the whole article. Those people want to tell you everything but the truth. And, old fashioned prepper that I am, I just want to know the facts. And modern media does not want you to know the facts.
Obama got the Nobel Peace Prize last night. A tad bit under nine months in office and he gets awarded a big international award for his efforts at making peace in the world. I ain't buying it. He got the Nobel Peace Prize as a consolation for not getting the Olympics. He is getting ready to sanction a war against Iran. He is fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a little bit in Somalia. Obama is about as peaceful as a California forest fire. I guess it is just one more thing that has been reduced to nothing in this crazy world of ours. But things are changing and we must get used to it. Then I read this morning that nominations for the prize were closed 10 days after Obama took office. I say it was rigged and thus counts for nothing. Shame on the Nobel committee.
I seem to have writers block this morning. Just a casual running out of gas I guess. But I don't want to quit this close to the finish line. I believe the system is going down and I want to stay with the program until the end. I did get a good prepper read off of Hermit Jim this morning. His piece is at http://hermitjim.blogspot.com/2009/10/believe-it-or-nota-review.html . His review is of some things we can all probably use and haven't got as yet. Maybe that ain't true of all of you, but it is for me. Especially that coffee pot. Looks like a winner. Big. Metal. Percolator. Nice. Reminds me of 40 years ago when we used big old metal coffee pots to make our coffee in the morning. It was the Old Man's recipe and he called it Hobo Coffee. Strong but good. Stay alive.
Michael
mboone@rtccom.net
Obama got the Nobel Peace Prize last night. A tad bit under nine months in office and he gets awarded a big international award for his efforts at making peace in the world. I ain't buying it. He got the Nobel Peace Prize as a consolation for not getting the Olympics. He is getting ready to sanction a war against Iran. He is fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a little bit in Somalia. Obama is about as peaceful as a California forest fire. I guess it is just one more thing that has been reduced to nothing in this crazy world of ours. But things are changing and we must get used to it. Then I read this morning that nominations for the prize were closed 10 days after Obama took office. I say it was rigged and thus counts for nothing. Shame on the Nobel committee.
I seem to have writers block this morning. Just a casual running out of gas I guess. But I don't want to quit this close to the finish line. I believe the system is going down and I want to stay with the program until the end. I did get a good prepper read off of Hermit Jim this morning. His piece is at http://hermitjim.blogspot.com/2009/10/believe-it-or-nota-review.html . His review is of some things we can all probably use and haven't got as yet. Maybe that ain't true of all of you, but it is for me. Especially that coffee pot. Looks like a winner. Big. Metal. Percolator. Nice. Reminds me of 40 years ago when we used big old metal coffee pots to make our coffee in the morning. It was the Old Man's recipe and he called it Hobo Coffee. Strong but good. Stay alive.
Michael
mboone@rtccom.net
Friday, October 9, 2009
NEW WEAPONS, TREACHERY
The so called non-lethal weaponry being developed by this country's government for use against it's own citizens is absolutely astonishing. I saw an article on Lew Rockwell about it at http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig6/ferner10.1.html. The bastards are getting ready to mess us up pretty bad. The fedgov knows what is coming and they are getting ready. Are you getting ready for them? Pittsburgh bussed in police from all over the country tor the G-20 meeting. They really spent the dollars for this little demonstration. And they had some amazing equipment. Go to the link above and read about it. Talk about 1984!
I am more and more convinced that the fedgov is wanting to have a slow slide into the morass of poverty. We citizens will have a slow, constantly hurtful, ride to the bottom. We will be programmed to run out of food and other goodies. We will be expected to be weakened and hungry. This will make us easier to rule and more apt to go along with what the government wants to do. But I despise this trick. If it is to go down, let it go right now! To hell with this slow weakening of our resources. The fedgov is fighting a battle of attrition, turning the populace into beggars. I ain't buying it. I will resist them to the bitter end and try to stay as healthy as I might. I see the need to go back to a local, calorie based economy. I can see horses becoming the trucks of the future. I can see barter being developed and strengthened in all areas. But this slow slide will stop that. It will give all of our resource to the government. The bastards WILL raise taxes. But the battle cry from our end of the pole is DON'T BE FOOLED. We have tried to earn our place in the new day and I can't see them being able to take it away from us. NOthing will change on our end. Beans, Bullets, and Band-aids will be the need and the goal. Get your non-hybrid seed and get it NOW. Get all the storage food you can find and afford, and remember that canned goods are much cheaper than freeze dried stuff.
I just saw a video of Gerald Celente on Russia Today. He is not talking about mistakes any more, he is quite simply saying it is over for the dollar. Over, done, kapoot! And this message is long in coming but it has been available for anyone who cared to listen for quite a some time. But it is here now! All those guys who make their living from their financial deals and their forecasts have been telling us it is gonna be all over and the time is at hand. We are getting rained on like crazy as I type this post. It is a very gloomy day. It accentuates the doomer message, if you catch my drift. When the dollar is no good we will still be able to spend it, at least for a while. Then it will be no good, but that may take some time. While currency is manipulated and stolen and all that happy crap, it is a convenient way to do business. We will find our place in the local economy soon. It has to happen. I would think that there will be plenty of help in the garden next year.
I have been hit with some pretty powerful personal emails and some powerful comments. Seems like the older preppers are getting ready and tell the devil to keep out of their way. By older I mean those who have been doing it for a while. Ernie and Survival Chic come to mind. I was just out on the porch talking with the Handmaiden and she is totally against getting a flu shot. I asked her what we would do if Walmart started giving away $350 worth of free food to every one who gets a flu shot. She said NO. I can just see the delivery boy coming in the door with the industrial food that America eats. He would be met by a 5' 2" red head with a butcher knife in each hand! She is NOT going to let them poison her with their vaccine. My sentiments exactly. We WILL get by with what we have and hope for a good garden next Spring. We will start talking about barter pretty soon and get some idea as to what we will use as trade goods and what our evaluation process will entail. You just never can tell what may pop up. As far as our national economy is concerned, I read an article last week that aid that American advertising through our media is aimed at the top 20% of the financial spectrum of America. They have pretty much given up on the lower 80% of us crudely financed poor folk. Shows you where we stand, huh? We just don't count any more. Your corporate economy at work. Stay alive.
Michael
mboone@rtccom.net
I am more and more convinced that the fedgov is wanting to have a slow slide into the morass of poverty. We citizens will have a slow, constantly hurtful, ride to the bottom. We will be programmed to run out of food and other goodies. We will be expected to be weakened and hungry. This will make us easier to rule and more apt to go along with what the government wants to do. But I despise this trick. If it is to go down, let it go right now! To hell with this slow weakening of our resources. The fedgov is fighting a battle of attrition, turning the populace into beggars. I ain't buying it. I will resist them to the bitter end and try to stay as healthy as I might. I see the need to go back to a local, calorie based economy. I can see horses becoming the trucks of the future. I can see barter being developed and strengthened in all areas. But this slow slide will stop that. It will give all of our resource to the government. The bastards WILL raise taxes. But the battle cry from our end of the pole is DON'T BE FOOLED. We have tried to earn our place in the new day and I can't see them being able to take it away from us. NOthing will change on our end. Beans, Bullets, and Band-aids will be the need and the goal. Get your non-hybrid seed and get it NOW. Get all the storage food you can find and afford, and remember that canned goods are much cheaper than freeze dried stuff.
I just saw a video of Gerald Celente on Russia Today. He is not talking about mistakes any more, he is quite simply saying it is over for the dollar. Over, done, kapoot! And this message is long in coming but it has been available for anyone who cared to listen for quite a some time. But it is here now! All those guys who make their living from their financial deals and their forecasts have been telling us it is gonna be all over and the time is at hand. We are getting rained on like crazy as I type this post. It is a very gloomy day. It accentuates the doomer message, if you catch my drift. When the dollar is no good we will still be able to spend it, at least for a while. Then it will be no good, but that may take some time. While currency is manipulated and stolen and all that happy crap, it is a convenient way to do business. We will find our place in the local economy soon. It has to happen. I would think that there will be plenty of help in the garden next year.
I have been hit with some pretty powerful personal emails and some powerful comments. Seems like the older preppers are getting ready and tell the devil to keep out of their way. By older I mean those who have been doing it for a while. Ernie and Survival Chic come to mind. I was just out on the porch talking with the Handmaiden and she is totally against getting a flu shot. I asked her what we would do if Walmart started giving away $350 worth of free food to every one who gets a flu shot. She said NO. I can just see the delivery boy coming in the door with the industrial food that America eats. He would be met by a 5' 2" red head with a butcher knife in each hand! She is NOT going to let them poison her with their vaccine. My sentiments exactly. We WILL get by with what we have and hope for a good garden next Spring. We will start talking about barter pretty soon and get some idea as to what we will use as trade goods and what our evaluation process will entail. You just never can tell what may pop up. As far as our national economy is concerned, I read an article last week that aid that American advertising through our media is aimed at the top 20% of the financial spectrum of America. They have pretty much given up on the lower 80% of us crudely financed poor folk. Shows you where we stand, huh? We just don't count any more. Your corporate economy at work. Stay alive.
Michael
mboone@rtccom.net
Thursday, October 8, 2009
THURSDAY THIS AND THAT
Things are still Loonie Tunes in the economy. Gold has sure been rocking the boat. My friend Charles Bell says we are about to experience a Gold Bubble. I said for that to happen the big boys have got to start buying the stuff. He said they would. They have fought it for years but are now going to get into it. Look out Gold market! I am not too worried about it because I don't have any of it. Don't know what I would do if I did. You want to sell Gold for dollars? That would make NO SENSE. The dollar is about a month away from being used for toilet paper. Who wants to give away perfectly good Gold for a mere handful of toilet paper? If you do have any Gold I would hold onto it for a long time. Could be worth something, you know.
Writers and Pundits are saying that Obama abolished the constitution at the G-20 meeting held recently at Pittsburgh. He supposedly made our currency and economic status dependant on the International Monetary Fund. Way to go, long legged Mack Daddy. Just hand the country over to the morons. Just what we need.
I was reading a very good article on Lew Rockwell this morning by Bill Sardi. It is at http://www.lewrockwell.com/sardi/sardi123.html . He kinda rakes the medical establishment over the coals for not checking flu deaths for nutritional deficiencies. He really gets it on. You will enjoy it. I am still taking my Winter disease prevention stuff every day and am doing quite well with it. So far so good. I am doing Vitamin C and D-3, Kimchee, Elderberry extract and Garlic. Great stuff. Echinacea is waiting in the back ground should I need it. Remember, only your body can kill the flu bugs. No medicine can do it.
It rained like a cow pissing on a flat rock yesterday but the forecast is for dry weather today. We will finally get to strip the garden of Cayenne. We keep putting it off due to rain and laziness but I intend we get after it today. Should be close to a bushel of peppers. The wife can get out her sewing kit and start making ristras to hang up. It sure is a beautiful sight to see all of those peppers hanging in front of the windows.
I have just been wondering how we will defend southern Indiana in the future. Looks like we will be safe from the West and the South but things could get a little touchy from the North and the East. Of course, nothing is safe from technology, so being underground is a must. You get a couple hundred feet of Sandstone over you , or maybe a little bit more, and you can stand about any attack. Things will be pretty ugly when violence breaks out across this fair land. I don't want it but I see no way out of it. These people running the show are crazy for power and wealth. They will attempt to do anything that bolsters their cause of ruling over us. And they do mean to rule over us. Don't think for a minute that they don't. Remember we have the Continuity of Government Act. You can thank Dubya for that one, I believe. It is so we know that no matter what happens there will be a government to tell us what to do, like "Go get your flu shot!"
We got damn near a bushel of Cayennes today. The wife has threaded up a few ristras already. The house will be full of peppers. One of my big dreams. All Winter I will be able to see peppers drying in front of the windows. The many bags of dried stuff the Handmaiden has done will be in big cans down under the stairs but at least I will get to see the peppers. The Handmaiden tells me that Cayenne pepper boosts other things you take into your body for medicinal purposes. I take plenty on my food, especially my morning eggs, and that ought to get my boosting in high gear. Stay alive.
Michael
mboone@rtccom.net
Writers and Pundits are saying that Obama abolished the constitution at the G-20 meeting held recently at Pittsburgh. He supposedly made our currency and economic status dependant on the International Monetary Fund. Way to go, long legged Mack Daddy. Just hand the country over to the morons. Just what we need.
I was reading a very good article on Lew Rockwell this morning by Bill Sardi. It is at http://www.lewrockwell.com/sardi/sardi123.html . He kinda rakes the medical establishment over the coals for not checking flu deaths for nutritional deficiencies. He really gets it on. You will enjoy it. I am still taking my Winter disease prevention stuff every day and am doing quite well with it. So far so good. I am doing Vitamin C and D-3, Kimchee, Elderberry extract and Garlic. Great stuff. Echinacea is waiting in the back ground should I need it. Remember, only your body can kill the flu bugs. No medicine can do it.
It rained like a cow pissing on a flat rock yesterday but the forecast is for dry weather today. We will finally get to strip the garden of Cayenne. We keep putting it off due to rain and laziness but I intend we get after it today. Should be close to a bushel of peppers. The wife can get out her sewing kit and start making ristras to hang up. It sure is a beautiful sight to see all of those peppers hanging in front of the windows.
I have just been wondering how we will defend southern Indiana in the future. Looks like we will be safe from the West and the South but things could get a little touchy from the North and the East. Of course, nothing is safe from technology, so being underground is a must. You get a couple hundred feet of Sandstone over you , or maybe a little bit more, and you can stand about any attack. Things will be pretty ugly when violence breaks out across this fair land. I don't want it but I see no way out of it. These people running the show are crazy for power and wealth. They will attempt to do anything that bolsters their cause of ruling over us. And they do mean to rule over us. Don't think for a minute that they don't. Remember we have the Continuity of Government Act. You can thank Dubya for that one, I believe. It is so we know that no matter what happens there will be a government to tell us what to do, like "Go get your flu shot!"
We got damn near a bushel of Cayennes today. The wife has threaded up a few ristras already. The house will be full of peppers. One of my big dreams. All Winter I will be able to see peppers drying in front of the windows. The many bags of dried stuff the Handmaiden has done will be in big cans down under the stairs but at least I will get to see the peppers. The Handmaiden tells me that Cayenne pepper boosts other things you take into your body for medicinal purposes. I take plenty on my food, especially my morning eggs, and that ought to get my boosting in high gear. Stay alive.
Michael
mboone@rtccom.net
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
SOME FINANCIAL NEWS
News is flashing by at a remarkable rate these days. I am getting hit with market analysis at all hours of the day. Preppers are mailing to me of the things they see in their areas. And things are moving, let me tell you. This little tidbit was sent to me by Bruce Burdick of garden growing fame. And he IS a gardener. But here it is:http://d.yimg.com/kq/groups/17260182/1610997888/name/ftc-vi26..wmv. This video will let you know what the Lefties are doing in congress with YOUR money. I heard from God Sunday night and he said to be humble, but that we were his children and he loved us. Kinda makes me think about those nations and religions here in on earth who wage war and kill people and cause major malfunctions within the human family. Maybe they are not of GOD. Maybe they just paint themselves with the word GOD and let it stand the blame for what they do. But we know they have done that for thousands upon thousands of years. Pretty bestial activity I think.
Here is an interesting article sent to me by Jim Haddix, another good Hoosier.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13915.html
After a massive upswing in US stocks over the last six months, the recent rally may finally be coming to an end. It seems that the trend of rising stocks on bad or better than expected news may be in a reversal, as evidenced by market participants� caution over the last couple of weeks. For those that follow contrarian investors like Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Gerald Celente and Harry Dent, this should come as no surprise.
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, advised his subscribers and followers to take positions in US tech stocks, the banking sector and hard assets at the bottom of the markets in early March of 2006. However, he did provide a word of caution on March 16, 2009, making it known that while he was a short-term bull on stocks, that eventually, the economic fundamentals would catch up:
"probably a total collapse in the second half of the year when it becomes clear that the economy is a total disaster." As recently as September 3rd, on Delhi TV, he made another call, essentially telling investors to get out:
"I believe in the next 10 days to two weeks we'll get big moves in markets. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Dollar would for a change strengthen and equity markets would correct and possibly quite meaningfully so."
Gerald Celente, Trends Research forecaster and contrarian thinker, advised listeners of the Jeff Rense show on September 23rd to look out below, calling it the Christmas Crash. He believes that the next collapse will come quickly, sometime this Fall, but as late as January or February of 2010:
"It's going to really be an ugly scene. We are really encouraging people now to take pro-active measures and prepare for the worst. Don't spend an extra dime."
Jim Rogers, who is well known for making millions during the recession and commodities boom of the 1970's, is also hesitant about acquiring more equities. He is an avid US Dollar bear, but in an interview on September 30th, he turned bullish on the dollar in the short term. His advice?
"I am not buying shares anywhere in the world as we speak."
Finally, we have economist and cyclical analyst Harry Dent Jr., who some may know for having called the real estate Bubble-Boom, and subsequent crash, years before it happened in his book The Next Great Bubble Boom.
Dent was also bullish on the Dow, calling for it to reach between 9450 and 10,500 after the March lows of 2009. Like Faber, Dent also cautioned investors to stay vigilant once the 9000 mark was breached. In a recent Economic Forecast Alert to subscribers, Dent indicated that the tide was changing:
"The markets are very overstretched here and we think it is very likely that we are seeing a top just above 9,800 on the Dow today. This is the best intermediate term play we have seen in a long time. Shorting the stock market (for example, ETF symbol SH) could yield 50% to 60%+ gains over the next year with a 5% to 15% downside if the markets keep edging up for awhile, even to extremes."
Though we continue to see most mainstream analysts talk the bull market talk, it looks as if the bull may be in trouble, especially if individual investors realize what all of the big boys talking their books already know - that the economic fundamentals are simply horrific and the markets are already pricing in GDP growth of over 5% for the next 4 quarters. Considering that GDP grew at 0.7% in the 2nd quarter, that seems highly unlikely. Some estimates also suggest the the P/E of the S&P 500 right now is at unprecedented levels of over 100!
As of today, it looks as if investor focus is shifting from stocks and commodities into what some consider to be short-term safehaven assets, such as US Treasury Bills/Notes/Bonds. The yield on the 10 yr is at 3.15% as of October 2nd, significantly down since August 7th�s 3.85%, suggesting that safety, not risk, is now the name of the game. Interestingly, and unlike November of 2008, gold seems to be holding strong at around $1000, though this may change if the US Dollar rises, as Jim Rogers, Faber and Dent have suggested it may.For those still in equities, we believe Tyler Durdern at Zero Hedge said it best, "Go long here at your peril."By Mac Slavohttp://www.shtfplan.com/Mac Slavo is a small business owner and independent investor focusing on global strategies to protect, preserve and increase wealth during times of economic distress and uncertainty. To read our commentary, news reports and strategies, please visit www.SHTFplan.com .
2009 Copyright Mac Slavo - All Rights Reserved
Here is an interesting article sent to me by Jim Haddix, another good Hoosier.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13915.html
After a massive upswing in US stocks over the last six months, the recent rally may finally be coming to an end. It seems that the trend of rising stocks on bad or better than expected news may be in a reversal, as evidenced by market participants� caution over the last couple of weeks. For those that follow contrarian investors like Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Gerald Celente and Harry Dent, this should come as no surprise.
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, advised his subscribers and followers to take positions in US tech stocks, the banking sector and hard assets at the bottom of the markets in early March of 2006. However, he did provide a word of caution on March 16, 2009, making it known that while he was a short-term bull on stocks, that eventually, the economic fundamentals would catch up:
"probably a total collapse in the second half of the year when it becomes clear that the economy is a total disaster." As recently as September 3rd, on Delhi TV, he made another call, essentially telling investors to get out:
"I believe in the next 10 days to two weeks we'll get big moves in markets. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Dollar would for a change strengthen and equity markets would correct and possibly quite meaningfully so."
Gerald Celente, Trends Research forecaster and contrarian thinker, advised listeners of the Jeff Rense show on September 23rd to look out below, calling it the Christmas Crash. He believes that the next collapse will come quickly, sometime this Fall, but as late as January or February of 2010:
"It's going to really be an ugly scene. We are really encouraging people now to take pro-active measures and prepare for the worst. Don't spend an extra dime."
Jim Rogers, who is well known for making millions during the recession and commodities boom of the 1970's, is also hesitant about acquiring more equities. He is an avid US Dollar bear, but in an interview on September 30th, he turned bullish on the dollar in the short term. His advice?
"I am not buying shares anywhere in the world as we speak."
Finally, we have economist and cyclical analyst Harry Dent Jr., who some may know for having called the real estate Bubble-Boom, and subsequent crash, years before it happened in his book The Next Great Bubble Boom.
Dent was also bullish on the Dow, calling for it to reach between 9450 and 10,500 after the March lows of 2009. Like Faber, Dent also cautioned investors to stay vigilant once the 9000 mark was breached. In a recent Economic Forecast Alert to subscribers, Dent indicated that the tide was changing:
"The markets are very overstretched here and we think it is very likely that we are seeing a top just above 9,800 on the Dow today. This is the best intermediate term play we have seen in a long time. Shorting the stock market (for example, ETF symbol SH) could yield 50% to 60%+ gains over the next year with a 5% to 15% downside if the markets keep edging up for awhile, even to extremes."
Though we continue to see most mainstream analysts talk the bull market talk, it looks as if the bull may be in trouble, especially if individual investors realize what all of the big boys talking their books already know - that the economic fundamentals are simply horrific and the markets are already pricing in GDP growth of over 5% for the next 4 quarters. Considering that GDP grew at 0.7% in the 2nd quarter, that seems highly unlikely. Some estimates also suggest the the P/E of the S&P 500 right now is at unprecedented levels of over 100!
As of today, it looks as if investor focus is shifting from stocks and commodities into what some consider to be short-term safehaven assets, such as US Treasury Bills/Notes/Bonds. The yield on the 10 yr is at 3.15% as of October 2nd, significantly down since August 7th�s 3.85%, suggesting that safety, not risk, is now the name of the game. Interestingly, and unlike November of 2008, gold seems to be holding strong at around $1000, though this may change if the US Dollar rises, as Jim Rogers, Faber and Dent have suggested it may.For those still in equities, we believe Tyler Durdern at Zero Hedge said it best, "Go long here at your peril."By Mac Slavohttp://www.shtfplan.com/Mac Slavo is a small business owner and independent investor focusing on global strategies to protect, preserve and increase wealth during times of economic distress and uncertainty. To read our commentary, news reports and strategies, please visit www.SHTFplan.com .
2009 Copyright Mac Slavo - All Rights Reserved
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
DEAD MEN WALKING
My second post of the day.
Michael sez: This is off of Reuters but I copied it over from http://thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/. This guy is good and you ought to give him a read.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Everything Collapsing "Unexpectedly"
LONDON (Reuters) - Industrial output plunged unexpectedly in August and at its sharpest monthly pace since January, according to official data, denting hopes for a strong rebound in growth in the third quarter of this year.
The Office for National Statistics said manufacturing output fell 1.9 percent on the month, confounding analysts' expectations for a 0.3 percent rise. July's increase was revised down to 0.7 percent from 0.9 percent. Consumers tighten belts in face of GDP slump.
The Economy is Dead Men Walking
Credit is everything. Without credit expansion there's no recovery because there's no pick-up in overall demand. But credit growth is going backwards. The banks have tightened lending standards and the pool of credit-worthy applicants has vanished. Bank lending is off 14 per cent since October 2008. Private credit is presently decreasing at a 10.5 per cent annual rate. The situation is getting worse, not better.(snippet)Consider this from Janet Tavakoli, author of "Dear Mr. Buffett" in an interview with Max Keiser:"Regarding the outlook, my analysis is grim. I am not a doomsayer, I follow the cash, and so far, I've been correct, and the government has been wrong. Here's the situation. We are at greater risk of a total meltdown due to a deflationary collapse than we were in 2007.
Michael sez: This is off of Reuters but I copied it over from http://thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/. This guy is good and you ought to give him a read.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Everything Collapsing "Unexpectedly"
LONDON (Reuters) - Industrial output plunged unexpectedly in August and at its sharpest monthly pace since January, according to official data, denting hopes for a strong rebound in growth in the third quarter of this year.
The Office for National Statistics said manufacturing output fell 1.9 percent on the month, confounding analysts' expectations for a 0.3 percent rise. July's increase was revised down to 0.7 percent from 0.9 percent. Consumers tighten belts in face of GDP slump.
The Economy is Dead Men Walking
Credit is everything. Without credit expansion there's no recovery because there's no pick-up in overall demand. But credit growth is going backwards. The banks have tightened lending standards and the pool of credit-worthy applicants has vanished. Bank lending is off 14 per cent since October 2008. Private credit is presently decreasing at a 10.5 per cent annual rate. The situation is getting worse, not better.(snippet)Consider this from Janet Tavakoli, author of "Dear Mr. Buffett" in an interview with Max Keiser:"Regarding the outlook, my analysis is grim. I am not a doomsayer, I follow the cash, and so far, I've been correct, and the government has been wrong. Here's the situation. We are at greater risk of a total meltdown due to a deflationary collapse than we were in 2007.
NEWS REPORT FROM GEORGIA
Hi Michael,
I hope this note finds you doing well. I bet your thumbs are starting to get pretty sore from shelling all those beans.
Life has not returned to normal here in my part of Georgia, even through we've had a week without rain. In my county there were 135 homes destroyed, 120 homes damaged and several hundred homes with varying degrees of difficulties. We still have 59 roads closed and it's a major under taking to get out of the county in a few places. We lost a major bridge over the Chatahoochee River on a road that sees about 9000 cars a day. That's not a whole lot but it cuts off a good part of the county from the adjacent county.
One lesson learned is that the rain came without a whole lot of warning and the flooding with next to no warning. As a result any one who had planned to bug out wasn't able to. Many neighborhoods, no matter how many roads are in them, eventually come to a choke point where one road being washed out leaves everyone basically on an island. Some people did have to leave by rescue boat and helicopter but they left with what they had on their backs. I'm pretty sure I didn't see a bug out bag on any of the people trying to get rescued.
Next lesson is that you've got to have water. We were under a boil water advisory for a full week. No biggie here because I had plenty put up and also had ways of purifying the water as needed. I did visit with neighbors who were crying the blues because they couldn't flush their toilets. I showed them how to take the lid off the tank, put a bucket out in the rain, and then pour the rain water in to the tank to get it ready to flush again. Most were amazed as I gather they had never looked to see how a toilet flushed.
On the toilet situation, we are fairly rural and don't have sewage so everyone has a septic tank. As the ground became saturated the tanks filled up with rain water and the grey water started making its way to the surface. Smells bad, disease carrying nasty water. Once that's in the house anything it touches is ruined.
The vast majority of relief came from the Salvation Army and from the Mormon Church. The SA handed out clean up kits and set up food kitchens and good stuff like that. The Mormons mobilized, once the water started going down, and came out in large groups to help tackle flood damage. They would descend on a neighborhood, tools in hand and would have the carpets and ruined furniture out and the sheetrock and insulation off the walls and the studs sprayed down with bleach in quick time order. They came last weekend and this weekend also, each time mustering over 200 men from the local areas. A couple of counties came through and set out several hundred dumpsters to haul away the debris. A few folks got the bright idea of trying to burn the ruined carpet, drywall and furniture and were fairly quickly over come by the toxic fumes coming off that stuff. No one died but a lot of people were ill from the fumes.
It's raining again this evening but nothing like the flood days. They are predicting more rain tomorrow but they don't think it'll flood, but we are ready no matter what comes our way.
Take care and have a good week.
Cliff in Georgia
I hope this note finds you doing well. I bet your thumbs are starting to get pretty sore from shelling all those beans.
Life has not returned to normal here in my part of Georgia, even through we've had a week without rain. In my county there were 135 homes destroyed, 120 homes damaged and several hundred homes with varying degrees of difficulties. We still have 59 roads closed and it's a major under taking to get out of the county in a few places. We lost a major bridge over the Chatahoochee River on a road that sees about 9000 cars a day. That's not a whole lot but it cuts off a good part of the county from the adjacent county.
One lesson learned is that the rain came without a whole lot of warning and the flooding with next to no warning. As a result any one who had planned to bug out wasn't able to. Many neighborhoods, no matter how many roads are in them, eventually come to a choke point where one road being washed out leaves everyone basically on an island. Some people did have to leave by rescue boat and helicopter but they left with what they had on their backs. I'm pretty sure I didn't see a bug out bag on any of the people trying to get rescued.
Next lesson is that you've got to have water. We were under a boil water advisory for a full week. No biggie here because I had plenty put up and also had ways of purifying the water as needed. I did visit with neighbors who were crying the blues because they couldn't flush their toilets. I showed them how to take the lid off the tank, put a bucket out in the rain, and then pour the rain water in to the tank to get it ready to flush again. Most were amazed as I gather they had never looked to see how a toilet flushed.
On the toilet situation, we are fairly rural and don't have sewage so everyone has a septic tank. As the ground became saturated the tanks filled up with rain water and the grey water started making its way to the surface. Smells bad, disease carrying nasty water. Once that's in the house anything it touches is ruined.
The vast majority of relief came from the Salvation Army and from the Mormon Church. The SA handed out clean up kits and set up food kitchens and good stuff like that. The Mormons mobilized, once the water started going down, and came out in large groups to help tackle flood damage. They would descend on a neighborhood, tools in hand and would have the carpets and ruined furniture out and the sheetrock and insulation off the walls and the studs sprayed down with bleach in quick time order. They came last weekend and this weekend also, each time mustering over 200 men from the local areas. A couple of counties came through and set out several hundred dumpsters to haul away the debris. A few folks got the bright idea of trying to burn the ruined carpet, drywall and furniture and were fairly quickly over come by the toxic fumes coming off that stuff. No one died but a lot of people were ill from the fumes.
It's raining again this evening but nothing like the flood days. They are predicting more rain tomorrow but they don't think it'll flood, but we are ready no matter what comes our way.
Take care and have a good week.
Cliff in Georgia
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